Assembly poll - Polling trends make prediction tough
Wednesday, 08/02/2012
http://www.tribuneindia.com/2012/20120208/punjab.htm#4
Contrary to initial reports of excessively heavy polling in the January 30 assembly elections in Punjab, detailed analysis of the polling trends has revealed that the initial reports were quite off the mark. There are 42 constituencies in the state where polling has actually decreased in comparison to the 2007 elections. This may change the perditions of many psephologists either in favour or against candidates.
In the constituencies that are considered People's Party of Punjab (PPP) strongholds, the polling percentage has dipped. This is in contrast to the earlier belief that a large number of youngsters went out to vote for the PPP. Similarly, areas with strong influence of Dera Sacha Sauda have also seen a dip in polling.
Now, the implications of these are for anyone to guess and cannot be interpreted with precession. But if one is to believe that the Dera "Premis" voted for the Congress or the PPP would bite into the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) vote base, the polling trends can upset many calculations.
A detailed look at the 117 segments of the Punjab Vidhan Sabha show that there are 28 segments where there has been an increase of over five per cent polling, some even touching 10 percent mark. In 34 segments, the polling percentage increased in between 1 to 5 per cent and in the remaining 13 constituencies, the increase is only fractional between 0 to 1 per cent.
Of the 42 constituencies in Punjab where the polling percentage has dipped, 21 constituencies are currently being held by the SAD-BJP alliance, 20 by the Congress and one by an Independent. Of the 28 segments where there is more than 5 per cent increase in polling, 22 are held by the SAD-BJP alliance. It could mean either anti-incumbency or revalidating the SAD-BJP government. The trends show a very clear urban and rural divide when it comes to polling trends. In Majha, for example, the two constituencies that have recorded an increase of over 5 per cent polling are both urban. These are Gurdaspur and Amritsar (North). Again there are only six semi-urban segments of Dina Nagar, Mukerian, Ajnala, Majitha, Attari and Khadoor Sahib that have registered a 1 to 5 per cent increase.
In Doaba, only six urban and semi-urban segments of Jalandhar (West), Jalandhar (North), Jalandhar (Cantt), Phagwara, Chabbewal and Garshankar have recorded an increase of more than 5 per cent polling. Here the increase between 1 to 5 per cent polling is only in 6 segments, which are Kapurthala, Sultanpur Lodhi, Nakodar, Adampur, Nawanshehar and Balachaur.
There has been an increase in polling in central and eastern Malwa, but there are an equal number of constituencies in southern and western Malwa that have recorded a decrease in polling. The PPP and Dera Sucha Sauda have considerable influence in areas like Moga, Muktsar, Faridkot, Bathinda, ect.
In the Malwa region the constituencies that have recorded more than 5 per cent polling include Firozepur (Rural), Dharamkot, Ludhiana (West), Khanna, Samrala, Sahnewal, Gill,Bathinda (Urban), Sangrur, Shutrana, Patiala (Rural), Rajpura, Dera Bassi, Ghanaur, Sanour and Patiala.
The polling increased in constituencies where there was either a rebel from the Congress or the SAD in the fray. There are about 10 segments where the rebels can be considered to be in the reckoning. It is estimated that four to six Independents (read rebels) may actually win.
As urban and semi-urban segments that have seen higher polling than rural areas, this could be interpreted as a pro-Congress or anti-incumbency against the ruling areas. Or at the same time it could also mean pro-BJP vote. The lower polling in rural areas could also be interpreted both as disillusionment against the ruling alliance as well as lack of enthusiasm in favour of the Congress. It is for the first time in Punjab's history when the candidates are still guessing the outcome.
