Reply to Punjab Budget 2008 - 19/03/2008
Reply to Punjab Budget 2008
The FM is a person capable of high level thinking. I cannot match his nobility, humility and calmness. Intellectually I cannot match his understanding of Greek mythology, ancient philosophy, the rise and fall of the Roman Empire or migration of mass civilisation from sub-Saharan Africa..
Much was expected from FM this year. Last year he had too little time to prepare. Sadly this was not really a budget. This is a statutory formality to satisfy article 202 of the constitution.
Like fakes of paintings by the old masters like Flowers by Van Gogh, Mona Lisa by Leonardo da Vinci and Water Lillies by Monet, this budget has been readily exposed as a fraud.
It is a deliberate attempt by the government to fool the people. PR Act amendment could have been brought in last session. Why not? Because it would have been challenged. Today’s announcement by the CM of postponement of elections is not for the reasons stated by him; it is down the realisation that the amendment is unconstitutional.
This budget / government like an ICEBERG:
1. 90% hidden.
2. Directionless, like this government. Goes with the flow.
3. An iceberg has a finite life. Eventually it melts away. So will this government.
4. As an iceberg sum the world’s then largest ocean liner the Titanic in 1912 on its maiden voyage from Southampton (UK) via Cherbourg (France) to New York (USA), I fear that this SAD-BJP iceberg may yet sink Punjab.
A Surplus budget? Optimistic I feel. Take the Atta Dal debt and PIBD bonds and you have a real deficit.
The Power Subsidy estimated by the FM is way too low at Rs2000 cr. If this year it is Rs,2800 cr, next year it will be much more, not least because of the increased losses due to extra power from Lehra Mohabat causing increased losses. There is a direct correlation between quantum power generation and PSEB losses.
Rising GSDP is a fundamental human right. Even recession do not reverse this. Only depressions and war do.
Increased VAT receipts mainly due to increased GSDP. MSP increment adds wheat Rs.3750cr and paddy Rs.3500 to the Punjab economy. A declining Rupee and declining interest rates both stoke inflation. As a result the VAT kitty grows, perhaps by more than the FM’s estimate.
Revenue deficit this year. No better than 05-06. Fiscal deficit target<3%, but it was 2.42% in 05-06. States tax revenues as % of all revenue receipts have declined from 54% 06-07 to 46% proj 08-09.
Most surprisingly, revenue deficit as a percentage of revenue receipts increased during the last Akali government but fell during the last Congress government.
Market borrowings: Rs981cr 06-07, projected Rs.2350cr this year, but now estimated at Rs.3513cr for the same period. Next year projected Rs. 4121cr.
Tax to GSDP ratio. Higher in Haryana, MP, Kerala, Karnataka. Planning commission projects this rising from 8.0 to 8.37% over the course of this government. Even UP is predicted to do better with a 1% rise.
Rs.15,000 Cr budget. Best wishes. Unrealistic.
There is limited political space in SAD for the FM. He cannot hope to lead it.
Join us. We will promote you.
Jassi Khangura MLA
19 March 2008
