Punjab Polls: An outsider’s observation on electoral outcome

Wednesday, 15/02/2012

http://www.punjabnewsline.com/news/?q=node/36246

As someone on a move while the campaigning was on for assembly polls in both Punjab and Uttar Pradesh, the one thing that particularly hit me was that our Delhi number-bearing car wasn’t stopped by the cops as often in the Land of Five Rivers as it was in UP. Was it because the security had to be kept extra tight for the staggered polls in UP -- always considered a politically crucial state -- vis a vis Punjab?

Well, UP may be a bigger state in terms of its impact on national politics (after all, it is being seen as a big test for Congress scion Rahul Gandhi who has put all his energies in reviving the Congress in UP), but undoubtedly the party has high stakes in Punjab too, that can’t be ignored.

Considering Punjab is known to have a strong anti-incumbency factor during every assembly election and the two main parties form the governments alternately, Congress is seen as the beneficiary of this trend in these polls. But will it be such a cakewalk for Captain saab? And if the octogenarian Parkash Singh Badal and his son Sukhbir return to Vidhan Sabha, it will be a huge loss for Congress and a personal failure of its state chief and former Chief Minister Amarinder Singh for being unable to cash in on the strongly perceived anti-incumbency trend. That’s why I feel Punjab and its dynamics can’t be ignored by the Centre, especially when as curious observers from outside the state, we didn’t notice a clear wave in any party’s favour.

Much has changed since the 2007 polls and the run-up to the elections has been quite dramatic too. There are estranged family members on both sides, who have decided to snap all ties with their original parties as they chart a new role for themselves in Punjab politics. So while, Amarinder Singh’s “aggrieved” brother Malwinder Singh chose the easy way out and joined rival Shiromani Akali Dal, Badal’s nephew Manpreet Singh Badal went ahead and launched People’s Party of Punjab and quickly forged an alliance with the Left Front to form the Sanjha Morcha. The latter’s move will naturally eat into the SAD’s votes, making Congress happy.

However, with Mayawati’s elephant too crawling slowly into Punjab, the Dalit votebank -- which was almost exclusively Congress domain till now – is also in the danger of being split with the presence of Bahujan Samaj Party candidates.

This multi-layered contest promises to bring exciting results on March 6 when the counting of votes begins. With an impressive 77 per cent turnout, it is uncertain if the people’s mandate will be one-sided or fractured leading to a hung assembly instead. Actually, that’s when the real games will begin!(eom)