Congress has a decisive edge in Ludhiana

Tuesday, 16/07/2013

http://www.punjabnewsline.com/news/congress-has-a-decisive-edge-in-ludhiana/82847

LUDHIANA: Of the 15 parliamentary elections held so far since independence, Congress has won the seat eight times while the Akalis seven times. Till the last delimitation of the parliamentary and assembly constituencies that took place in 2007, Ludhiana parliamentary constituency was dominated with the rural assembly segments thus providing a natural edge to the Akalis. However, post 2007 delimitation Ludhiana is a predominantly urban constituency with six totally urban, two semi-urban and only one rural segment falling in this parliamentary constituency thus providing a strong edge to the Congress.

This was reflected in a massive victory of the Congress candidate Manish Tewari over the Akali candidate Gurcharan Singh Galib, who had defected to Akali Dal to contest against Tewari, by a record margin of 1,13,706 votes. No Congress candidate form Ludhiana had till now won with such a record margin of over one lakh votes. In fact it was just twice till now that the victory margin in Ludhiana was over one lakh. Once in 1977 when there was Janata Party wave in post-emergency elections when Akali candidate Jagdev Singh Talwandi defeated Devinder Singh Garcha of the Congress by 1,03, 594 votes and in 1989 when Rajinder Kaur Bulara of Akali  Dal-Amritsar (of Simranjit Singh Mann) won by 1,33,729 votes against Gurcharan Singh Galib of the Congress. This was again because of the antipathy towards the Congress as it was peak of militancy in Punjab those days. Moreover, Congress suffered massive defeat at national level as well.

Probably for the reason that Ludhiana is considered to be one of the strongest constituencies for the Congress, the Akalis are finding it difficult to finalise a candidate from here. Otherwise, the Akalis are known for finalising their candidates way ahead of others. Although some names like that of industrialist Kamal Oswal and Dakha MLA Manpreet Singh Ayali are doing rounds, but nobody is certain who shall be fielded. It is learnt that everybody in Akali Dal who is offered to contest wants a bargain in advance as they find it very difficult to challenge high profile and all powerful Tewari that too in a Congress bastion like Ludhiana.

2009 Results (Assembly break up)
In 2009, it was a direct contest between Tewari and Galib. After the delimitation the number of voters in Ludhiana parliamentary constituency had come down to 13,09,308 from 15,60,468 in  2004. Of the 8,46,364 votes polled, Tewari got 4,49,264, the highest so far by any candidate in Ludhiana and won by a massive margin of 1,13,706 votes. Galib got 3,35,558 votes while a BSP candidate got 32,660 and others got 25,000 votes.

Tewari led from seven of the nine assembly segments falling in the Ludhiana parliamentary constituency. The only two segments he trailed were Dakha by 2351 votes and Jagaraon by 4000 votes. In all the six urban seats in Ludhiana city and one semi-urban Gill assembly segment he led by comfortable margin taking his cumulative lead to about 1.20 lakhs which was reduced in Dakha and Jagaraon.

2012 Assembly Results
In 2012 assembly elections Congress has won only 3 of the 9 assembly segments. But that does not weaken the Congress position in the parliamentary constituency. The total number of votes polled by the Congress candidates in nine assembly segments is 4,06,723, while the Akali-BJP candidates got 3,71,936 votes. Besides, the Bains brothers got 1,00,657 votes from Atam Nagar and Ludhiana South, both of which they won. Another independent candidate supported by them in Ludhiana East, Daljit Singh ‘Bola’ Grewal got 22, 412 votes. These 1,23,069 votes are mostly anti-Akalis as both the Bains brothers as well as Bola were Akali rebels.

Although the Bains brothers have aligned themselves with the Akalis (as having won election as independent candidates they cannot join any party and are hence associate members only), but that does not guarantee the transfer of their votes to the party as there are several factors involved. Most important being the treatment being meted out to them in the Akali Dal, which hardly leaves any doubt as for whom their supporters are likely to vote.

The fact that both Bains brothers and Bola took away the Congress votes more than the Akalis is proved from an analysis of 2009 parliamentary elections. From Atam Nagar, for example where Tewari got 44,073 votes, the Congress candidate this time (2012) got just 18,863 votes. Similarly in Ludhiana South Tewari got 33,909 votes and the Congress candidate in 2012 got 16,737 votes only. And in Ludhiana East where Tewari got 46,138 votes, the Congress candidate in 2012 got 33,586 votes.

And it is these three constituencies only where the number of votes polled by the Congress candidates has come down, that too substantially, as compared with 2009. Otherwise even in the constituencies which the Congress otherwise lost, like Dakha, Gill or Jagaraon, the party has increased the number of votes it got in 2012 as compared to 2009.

Bahujan Samaj Party managed to retain almost the same votes. While in 2009 BSP candidate Kehar Singh got about 32,000 votes, in 2012 BSP candidate polled about 27,000 votes.

Significantly, however, is the People’s Party of Punjab-CPI alliance getting 30,913 votes in these (2012) elections which are again anti-Akali votes.

Conclusion
The Bains brothers along with Bola Grewal may hold the balance in the final outcome in the 2014 parliamentary elections. However, theirs is not the only factor. Moreover the context and texture of the parliamentary elections is entirely different from those of the assembly elections. It is easy to get votes for yourself than someone else. Besides, the stature and persona of Manish Tewari will always remain overriding and more so when the Akalis have not been able to finalise a candidate so far.

The Akalis have never crossed 3.5 lakh votes in Ludhiana parliamentary constituency even when the total number of voters was over 15 lakhs and the constituency was a rural dominated one. With the number of votes having come down to slightly over 13 lakhs from 15 lakhs and the constituency having turned predominantly urban it seems quite unlikely that they may be able to improve the number of votes polled by them. Even when the tide turned against the Congress in 2012, the party (Congress) managed to get over 4 lakh votes from nine constituencies which is not difficult for it to retain in 2014 given the stature of Tewari, thus providing a clear and decisive edge to the party.

Ludhiana MPs since 1951 (first General Elections)

1. 1951: Bahadur Singh, Indian National Congress
   
   
2. 1957: Ajit Singh Sarhadi, Indian National Congress
   
   
3. 1962: Sardar Kapur Singh, Shiromani Akali Dal
   
   
4. 1967: Devinder Singh Garcha, Indian National Congress
   
   
5. 1971: Devinder Singh Garcha, Indian National Congress
   
   
6. 1977: Jagdev Singh Talwandi, Akali Dal
   
   
7. 1980: Devinder Singh Garcha, Indian National Congress
   
   
8. 1984: Mewa Singh Gill, Akali Dal
   
   
9. 1989: Rajinder Kaur Bulara, Shiromani Akali Dal
   
   
10. 1991: Gurcharan Singh Galib, Indian National Congress
    
    
11. 1996: Amrik Singh Aliwal, Shiromani Akali Dal
    
    
12. 1998: Amrik Singh Aliwal, Shiromani Akali Dal
    
    
13. 1999: Gurcharan Singh Galib, Indian National Congress
    
    
14. 2004: Sharanjit Singh Dhillon, Shiromani Akali Dal
    
    
15. 2009: Manish Tewari, Indian National Congress