Strong fundamentals promise sweeping success for Congress in Punjab

Tuesday 26/03/2019

https://www.brightpunjabexpress.com/index.php/2019/03/25/strong-fundamentals-promise-sweeping-success-for-congress-in-punjab/

CHANDIGARH, March 25: The Congress sweeping the parliamentary elections in Punjab this time may not sound quite exaggerated given the strong fundamentals the party can bank upon. The party has an assured and guaranteed vote share that it has managed to retain in the worst times even.

During the last assembly elections held in 2017, the party polled a vote share of 38.6 percent against 25.3 by Akalis, 23.8 by the Aam Aadmi Party and 5.4 by the BJP. This was against a massive AAP wave that had swept across the state, the Malwa region in particular.

While the Congress during the last two years has grown from strength to strength having reached the two-third majority figure, thanks to Shahkot by-election, the opposition has been completely fragmented and disintegrated.

Even if the Congress manages to retain the 38.6 percent share in the parliament, it may sweep all the 13 seats. Such result is not being ruled out today. This is because the Shiromani Akali Dal, the principal opposition party is faced with a massive revolt. There is all likelihood of its 2017 vote share of 25.3 percent declining further.

This is for two reasons. One, a large section of the traditional Akali voters is not happy with the party for the way it handled the Bargadi sacrilege and police firing on protestors. Second, the exodus of some senior party leaders in Majha region like Ranjit Singh Brahmpura, Rattan Singh Ajnala, Sewa Singh Sekhwan and others. Besides, the veteran Akali leader Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa has virtually quit the party.

The Akalis have always been much dependent on the alliance partner BJP. Both the parties supplement each other. Normally the BJP has been able to retain its vote share between 8 and 10 percent. However, in 2017, the party touched its nadir with just slightly over 5 percent votes. The combined share of the Akali-BJP in 2017 was 30.7 percent, about 8 percent less than that of Congress. 8 percent gap is too wide to be filled.

Since the AAP is divided and disintegrated, most of the people who voted for the party have deserted it. They were mainly the anti-Akali voters. The party’s 23.8 percent vote share is likely to come down massively and in all probability may be in single digit. About 12-13 percent votes share that is likely to swing away from the party (AAP) is likely to join the Congress. And overwhelming majority of people in the AAP in Punjab are anti-Akalis. When they will have to leave the AAP, which in all probability they already have, their alternate option will be the Congress. Because the anger and resentment against the Akalis continue to persist.

This gives a double advantage to the Congress. In all likelihood it stands to gain all the votes which have got disillusioned with the Akalis and the AAP. This puts the party in a position where it may cross 40 per cent share while the opposition parties may slide down, making the party’s position quite enviable.

Given the past figures and the ground situation currently prevailing in the state, Congress is likely to be ahead, at least by ten percent, of its nearest rival that is likely to be the Akali-BJP alliance. Ten percent lead, with divided opposition both from within and outside, in all likelihood will guarantee almost every seat in Punjab.